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Nigeria‘s gas demand growth from 2020 - 2030 could see domestic demand growing from 30% to 60% contribution

High case
Base case
Baseline
Overall Gas Demand Evolution, BCFD
xxDomestic (high case), BCFD
xxExport (high case), BCFD
0.782.72
1.223.18
1.393.48
12.374.97
13.239.41
Between 2010 and 2020, gas demand grew at an average of 3.3% p.a. driven largely by growth in domestic demand which was in turn driven by an improvement in Domestic Supply Obligation fulfillment (22% vs 33%)
Between 2020 and 2030, demand is expected to grow at about 16.6% p.a. driven by major projects such as NLNG T7 in the base case, Nigeria/Morocco pipeline, NLNG T8, AKK pipeline related projects in the high case
In order to deliver on the decade of gas growth target enablers such as infrastructure, GSAs, financing among others will be required to ensure that projects are executed

In the high case, by 2030, domestic gas consumption could account for ~60% of total gas demand, driven by the power sector

2030 best-case breakdown of gas usage across domestic and export, BCFD

7,665

Off-Grid power

7%

Grid power

26%

051015202530

Power

2,956

Cement

1%

Retail

5%

Industrial

7%

354045

Commercial

2,605

Petchem

1%

Methanol

2%

Fertilizer

8%

5055

BGI

9,408

Other (F) LNG

5%

Pipelines

8%

LNG

29%

6065707580859095100

Exports

Exports are still driven largely by LNG, which accounts for ~69% of export demand. In 2020, NLNG accounted for > 97% of export volumes
Domestic demand is still driven by power which accounts for slightly under 60% of domestic demand, this is relatively in line with 2020 levels
GBI demand is driven by fertilizers which account for ~72% of demand
Commercial use is driven largely by the industry sector, although this is somewhat misleading
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The Decade of Gas initiative, launched in 2021, is focused on transforming Nigeria into a gas-powered economy by 2030 through series of policy reforms, gas supply projects maturation, gas infrastructure expansion, capacity building and robust investment attraction strategies.

Contact

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Jabi, FCT Abuja
Nigeria
+234 705 547 7558
info@decadeofgas.com.ng